Fact or Fiction: If I Keep a Gym Member for 6 Months, I Keep Them Forever

New series: Let's let data prove the business mantras we think and repeat in the gym ownership space.

If I keep a member for 6 months, they will be here forever.
— Average Gym Owner

If I had a buck every time I’ve heard this over my 13 years in the boutique gym ownership space, I would maybe have $1,000.

It’s repeated enough to be kinda common knowledge… but at the same time I’d be a millionaire if I had a buck for every desire for more leads.

But that’s another post for another day.

What Does The Data Say?

I was curious how true this statement was. So I dug into the data PushPress has, which is > 250,000 gym memberships over the last 3 years (I kept it recent to keep it relevant). To note, this 3 year span included COVID - which will make this finding even more remarkable.

It’s uncanny how dead on, even without data, our subjective minds can be.

It turns out the “feeling” that 6 months is a magic number was amazingly close to what the data shows.

It also turns out the latter part of that saying (“I’ll keep them forever”) is very untrue - and that’s the warning message of this post.

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To clearly understand why churn is the one number you need to focus on, make sure to read Nerding Out: The One Math Formula That's Destroying Your Business. In this post I break down exactly why you’re stuck at 150 members.

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First let’s look at the data. This cohorted churn matrix shows every membership that’s begun across the PushPress network of gyms from January 2020 to December 2022.

It only takes into account memberships with auto-renewals; Disregarding trial plans, punchcards, and other non-permanent memberships.

It then evaluates which month that membership churned and plots that out across the timeline.

Here’s the raw data:

The first thing that stood out to me was how little Covid affected PushPress gyms were compared to the perception of the entire fitness industry.

It’s clear Covid affected membership sales and churn in the first few months of 2020 and then everything is in line with the norm.

This is interesting enough I think I’ll slice and dice this one up for a separate post.

Let’s look at this data to see if we can find a clear point of churn inflection.

Up until month 6 we see harsh churn rates on average between 8% and 10% per month.

Month 7 feels to be the taper month, where we see between 3% and 5% churn rates.

From month 8 beyond we see a clear and steady 2%-3% churn rate ongoing forever. This is the concerning part.

Let me map this out in another chart form that will illustrate this clearly

That top outlier? That’s April 2020, or the worst month gyms faced due to Covid.

And here’s the raw chart so you can see the amazing consistency of this churn map over time.

Start With The First 7 Months

This data clearly shows a smooth onboarding process and integration into your gym is likely very critical to your business success.

Reducing this sharp churn curve should be your first priority. Think in the lens of your customer.

What makes them feel safe joining your gym? What gets them into the process and finding results, success or happiness as soon as possible?

How do you get them integrated with your community and coaches as quickly as you can?

Solving The Long Tail Churn

3%+ monthly churn ongoing after month 7 is equally devastating to a business.

Try to find frequent and helpful checkin points for your members to realign their goals and outcomes as you get into the 6 month plus range.

Remember - Variety is the spice of life. Some of your members will be good doing the same thing day in and day out for year. Most will not.

Find way to introduce a sense of “newness” into their relationship with your gym to keep things fresh and fun.

This does not have to be workout programming or directions. It can include things like social activities or coach rotations (change your evening coaches for your morning ones).

Just keep a mind’s eye towards keeping things interesting and different for your members!